Jet Match Quarterly Report

The executive aviation market ended 2024 on a high note, both in the new and pre-owned jet sectors. The highlight of the fourth quarter was the increase in the number of aircraft available for sale, a trend observed in the general business jet market. However, the behavior of the Large & ULR (Ultra Long Range) segment showed some differences.

Market Confidence on the Rise

Despite the increase in inventory, one of the key indicators that caught attention was the return of market confidence. According to IADA, the mood in the fourth quarter was one of relief following the U.S. election results and the perception that the new Trump administration will be "pro-business, pro-growth, and pro-opportunity." The organization noticed that "Inventory levels continued to rise in Q4 2024, albeit slowly, as the availability of highly cherished young pre-owned aircraft remained tight."

Business Jets – All Segments

Between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the same period in 2024, there was a 13.7% increase in the number of jets for sale. When comparing the third and fourth quarters of 2024, there was a 4% increase.

The number of transactions rose by 14% compared to the previous quarter – an expected trend, as the fourth quarter is traditionally the busiest of the year. However, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, there was a 12.6% drop in completed deals.

One explanation for this decline could be a delay in closing deals: the entire system for selling an aircraft is overloaded (workshops, slots, parts, and labor are in high demand at the moment). This data will probably become visible in the first quarter of 2025 results.

Asking prices remained practically stable: an increase of 0.4% compared to the third quarter of 2024, but a decrease of 1.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The number of days on the market decreased by 1.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 and by 2.5% compared to the third quarter of 2024.

Large & ULR Segment

The number of jets for sale in the segment registered a more modest increase of 1.5% compared to the third quarter and 4.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The number of transactions, on the other hand, shows the strength of the segment: an increase of 20% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 and 33% compared to the third quarter of 2024. In other words, there is a subtle increase in inventories and strong growth in the number of transactions.

Asking prices increased 3.4% over the fourth quarter of 2023 and 5.8% over the third quarter of 2024. The number of days on the market jumped 39% over the fourth quarter of 2023 and 5.2% over the third quarter of 2024. Even longer transaction times and rising prices haven't dampened the appetite for pre-owned jets.

It's always worth remembering that the increase in the number of days on the market could be the result of a workshop system with a greater demand for Pre-Purchase Inspections (PPIs). We see a queue to get a slot at all the shops that do PPIs. Moreover the more business there is, the greater the demand for parts and labor. The result is longer lead times to close a deal.

Confidence

One explanation may be related to confidence in the market. For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022, the Business Jet Indicator has risen above the level that indicates stability. This improvement results from several themes, but it is worth highlighting the market's optimism with the different economic scenario presented by the new Trump administration in the US.

"The survey results and commentary highlighted election optimism, OEM book-to-bills and improvement in outlook for the increase in index", Bombardier commented.

According to Corporate Jet Investor, market players have already seen a "Trump bump": an increase in the number of deals registered both at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024 and in these early months of 2025. There is also an expectation that the Trump administration will reinstate tax benefits such as 100% bonus depreciation. "From a tax perspective it's good news," said David Hernandez, shareholder at law firm Vedder Price.

The remark by Steve Friedrich, Chief Commercial Officer of Embraer's Executive Aircraft Division, was particularly noteworthy: "We are in a Golden Age of executive aviation." There are multiple reasons: the fundamental strength of the global economy, corporate profits, wealth accumulation and transfer, and the retention of first-time buyers. "Everything is lined up, despite the fact that the backlog is growing," he adds. "Right now, the demand is rock solid."

Concerns

On the negative side, there are concerns about the trade war launched by Trump. The big example is Bombardier, which postponed the release of its 2025 guidance when it released its balance sheet last year. "I am very disappointed that we can't guide 2025 today," said Bombardier president and CEO Éric Martel. "In light of the current tariff threat, not providing guidance is the most responsible and transparent thing for us to do."

The General Aviation Manufacturers Association's assessment is that "Given the global nature of the aviation manufacturing industry, these proposed tariffs, as well as potential reciprocating tariffs, could have an enormous impact with many unintended consequences on the industry."

Manufacturers

In this special edition for the end of the fiscal year 2024, we bring you the highlights of the results of more manufacturers: Gulfstream, Bombardier, Dassault, Embraer, Textro, Airbus and Boeing. One big highlight is a comment made by market research firm Bernstein: “Aerospace backlogs have moved modestly downward in each of the last four quarters. Although management stressed that demand is strong, it appears that customers may be less willing to move into a queue for delivery beyond two years out.” This is another factor that points to the strength of the pre-owned market.

To read more about the executive aviation industry, download today your copy of our 4Q2024 Market Report.