Industry Remarks and Quarterly Report: A Comprehensive Overview of Q1 2025
- Jet Match Team
- Jun 16
- 4 min read
General Outlook for Executive Aviation at the Start of 2025
The year began on a positive note for the executive aviation industry, with a significant 44.4% increase in pre-owned jet transactions across all segments and a 43.8% growth specifically in the large and ultra long-range jet segment, comparing Q1 2025 with the same period in 2024.
Although discussions about new tariffs began in March, with former President Donald Trump officially announcing the tariff package on April 2nd—during the so-called “Liberation Day”—the effects of these measures have not yet been reflected in the first quarter results.
During the first three months of the year, the industry maintained the same level of confidence observed in Q4 2024, driven by expectations of a potential “Trump bump.” The Business Jet Indicator, a market confidence barometer developed by Barclays, remained at 52 in Q1 2025—above the neutral threshold of 50 and significantly higher than the 42 recorded in the same period of 2024.
Tariff Scenario and Current Concerns
As of April, however, tariffs have become a central concern for the industry, particularly during the Latin American edition of the Corporate Jet Investor conference. The topic dominated both panel discussions and hallway conversations, with legal teams and trust companies actively working to guide clients on transactions involving aircraft entering or leaving the United States—a country that accounts for 62.5% of the global business jet fleet.
The J.P. Morgan report highlights that the market’s main concern is the combination of the macroeconomic impact of tariffs on new business jet demand and rising production costs. According to a survey by IADA, 90% of brokers believe that prices will remain stable or slightly decline over the next six months. The same percentage expects aircraft supply to remain stable or slightly increase in the same period.
Quarterly Report: Key Market Indicators
All Business Jet Segments
In the general market, the number of aircraft for sale rose by 6.9% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year. Asking prices increased by 0.5%, while average days on market decreased by 7.5%. As previously mentioned, transactions rose by 44.4%.
Despite the increase in inventory, the market remains healthy. In executive aviation, it is generally considered balanced when the total inventory of jets for sale is below 10%. The indicator rose from 6.92% in Q1 2024 to 7.21% in Q1 2025—a slight increase that still reflects a robust level of activity.
Large and ULR Jets
In this segment, inventories fell by 7.1% year-over-year in Q1 2025. Asking prices rose by 5.5%, and average days on market increased by 23.2%. Nevertheless, transactions grew by 43.8%, indicating strong appetite for pre-owned large and ultra long-range jets. The percentage of the fleet for sale dropped from 6.96% to 6.27%—a 10% decline that reinforces the trend of strong demand even amid reduced supply.
Future Expectations and the Role of Tariffs
The effects of the tariffs are still difficult to measure. It is crucial to understand at what level they will stabilize and how they will impact non-U.S. manufacturers. It is also important to consider possible retaliatory measures by countries like China, which may negatively influence demand for U.S.-made jets.
On the one hand, tariffs could encourage the purchase of American aircraft within the U.S., which might drive up their prices or pressure foreign manufacturers to lower theirs. On the other hand, if American aircraft prices rise too much, the market may once again favor international options. In short, opposing forces make it difficult to draw clear forecasts.
Another key point is the possible restoration of 100% bonus depreciation. Trump's 2026 fiscal year budget proposal includes this measure, which would allow buyers to fully expense the price of new or used aircraft. If retroactive to January 20, this provision could significantly reduce the net acquisition cost and stimulate a new wave of demand.
Manufacturers: Q1 Reactions and Outlook
Manufacturer performance reflected the market's overall behavior. According to Corporate Jet Investor, OEMs had a strong first quarter and remain confident about the next three months.
Gulfstream, for instance, stated that it is still too early to assess the impact of financial market volatility on buyer behavior. Phebe Novakovic, CEO of General Dynamics, said: “Nothing we see so far is extraordinary... everyone is being a bit cautious trying to figure out the extent to which tariffs will impact their business. But the pipeline remains strong.”
Bombardier also posted positive results despite economic uncertainties. Initially, the company refrained from providing 2025 guidance, but now—with greater clarity on tariffs, including the continuation of the USMCA aircraft exemption—it has issued its forecast for the year.
“Since February, we’ve gained more clarity on tariff mechanics and conducted several deep dives across our business,” said Éric Martel, Bombardier’s CEO. “Despite being in a more volatile environment, we continue to see order activity and have not experienced any cancellations.”
Embraer, in turn, emphasized that its Q1 results were not affected by U.S. tariffs, reaffirming its 2025 guidance—a positive sign, according to BTG Pactual.
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